Lukas Z's Blog

Some Predict the Stock Market

There’s an (lingo requried:) insane amount of money to be made quickly*. I’ve seen it happen.


Earn the trust of enough people that you can predict price movements in the markets.

You are right more often than you are wrong. You know how to read charts. You can sense the temperature of the market. You have done this for a long time. Your intuition is very developed. Perhaps you are very specialized and only participate in a very specific, narrow market.

Actually, you don’t even need to predict anything, you just have to trade well and allow the public to see your trades in real time.

And then you go pro.

You (mostly) stop posting for the public. You create a website with a paid account for let’s say $100 per month that allows paying users to still see your messages. From your 25.000 Twitter followers 5.000 immediately sign up. They are certain they will get that money back in a few days of trading, anyway.

That’s $50.000 each month.

I’ve seen it happen, and it wasn’t just $100. And it wasn’t just 5.000 who joined. One person I’ve been following on Twitter must have made at least half a million dollars per month. He was into it. A real nerd. And rather humble. He made all that money doing what he loves. I mean, that’s great, isn’t it?

I am not objecting to this. It is what it is. But we should keep in mind that there is a very high chance that even the most skilled guru will sometimes be completely wrong. It’s just the nature of the markets. Some will be wrong many times in a row. Either way, there can be no guarantees.

If we participate, we must manage our risk. Not go all in when someone announces a trade. We must be smart about it and practice restraint each time.

Because if they fail they may simply call the market irrational. They can say FOMO (fear of missing out) has driven everyone insane. And so forth. Some of them will do that, anyway.

But it does not matter why they were wrong. When the result is that their followers have lost a lot of money.

Trading or not, I just think it’s an interesting space to observe.

The markets are wild, but I believe experienced traders might be able to win. More often than not. And this is enough. But getting that experience can take a long time. And it can cost a lot of money.

Maybe it really is better to pay someone, who seems to have the skill, for guidance.

P.S.: I think some people should definitely stay away from markets and gambling in general. But, I am not trying to motivate anyone to do anything. As mentioned before, I am just writing all these posts lately in order to get better at writing.

* = Quickly once a followership has accumulated. This can take a while.

P.S.: You can follow me on Twitter.